The global market for non-alcoholic beer is poised for significant growth, potentially accounting for up to 40% of global beer sales within the next decade, according to Rob Fink, CEO of UK-based Big Drop Brewing Co. Fink believes the trend is heading in only one direction, as more consumers turn to alcohol-free alternatives.
While non-alcoholic beer still makes up a small portion of the global beer market, global consumption has plateaued. This has led major brewers to invest more heavily in the non-alcoholic beer sector, alongside specialized businesses like Big Drop Brewing in the UK and Athletic Brewing in the U.S.
Currently, non-alcoholic beer accounts for about 1.7% of global beer sales, according to Heineken. However, figures from GlobalData suggest that the category is expanding, with the global market for 0% beer having increased by over 40% in volume between 2018 and 2023. GlobalData estimates that 2.39 billion liters of non-alcoholic beer were sold worldwide in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 7%.
Despite this growth, GlobalData forecasts that the market share of non-alcoholic beer in the eight largest beer markets will remain relatively stable until 2029, with an increase from 14.3% of beer volumes in 2024 to just under 14.6% by 2029.
Fink is optimistic about the future of the category, particularly in markets like Spain and Germany, where non-alcoholic beer has gained significant traction. He believes that other regions will follow suit, arguing that the non-alcoholic beer market could expand to 20%, 30%, or even 40% in the next decade, driven by growing health concerns and a shift in consumer behavior.
“The only question now is how fast it goes and whether the larger brewers can pivot to an alcohol-free business model quickly enough,” Fink stated. He emphasized that while alcohol will always be consumed, the proportion of alcohol-free beer in the market is expected to rise significantly, challenging big brewers to adapt.
Fink also discussed the changing retail landscape, noting that supermarket shelves in the UK have become increasingly dominated by major brewers’ non-alcoholic beer offerings. He expressed concern that retailers’ early support for smaller brands has waned due to slower sales growth.
In the pub sector, Fink remains a strong advocate for placing non-alcoholic beer on draught. While some operators are hesitant, he sees the trend gaining momentum, with more landlords opening taps for alcohol-free options. “It’s coming, and it’s getting better. A couple of people just need to put their head above the parapet,” Fink said.
To meet growing demand, Big Drop has shifted production to North Yorkshire’s Black Sheep Brewery for the UK and European markets and is expanding internationally. The company has begun contract brewing in Singapore and is set to start production in Australia.
As the sector continues to grow, Fink believes it will become more sophisticated, with consumers seeking a broader range of non-alcoholic beer options. Supermarkets will likely offer both mass-produced alcohol-free lagers and craft beer alternatives from smaller independent breweries, allowing for greater variety and flavor profiles.
The future of non-alcoholic beer appears bright, with significant expansion expected in both the retail and on-trade sectors over the next few years.
You Might Be Interested In:
- What Beer is Similar to Blue Moon?
- How to Make Home Ginger Beer? A Step-by-Step Guide
- What Is the Best Low Alcohol Beer?
