Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was one of the few European leaders to attend Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, a gesture that has become the subject of growing interest as trade tensions between the US and the EU simmer. While other EU leaders may have looked on skeptically, Meloni could be positioned to benefit from Trump’s upcoming trade policies, especially concerning tariffs on Italian exports.
Italy’s wine industry, which relies heavily on the US as its largest market, is particularly concerned. In 2024, Italy exported roughly $2 billion worth of wine to the US, with some estimates suggesting that tariffs could cost Italian wineries up to $300 million annually. The president of the Prosecco DOC even confirmed that US importers are already stockpiling Prosecco in anticipation of potential tariffs.
However, wine represents only a fraction of Italy’s exports to the US, which totaled more than $70 billion in 2024. Wine accounts for roughly 3 percent of this, leading some to suggest that Trump’s tariffs could target other Italian products such as shoes and handbags, which could generate more leverage for the US in negotiations.
Economics professor Mike Veseth, known as The Wine Economist, explained that if Trump follows through with broad tariffs targeting entire countries, the impact on Italy’s wine industry could be less severe than initially feared. Unlike the targeted tariffs Trump imposed during his first term, this broader approach could drive the value of the US dollar up and the euro down, partially offsetting the effects of any new tariffs on Italian exports.
Despite the uncertainty, some believe Italy may be spared. Meloni’s personal ties to Trump, including her attendance at his inauguration and her reportedly friendly relationship with prominent figures like Elon Musk, could work in Italy’s favor. Veseth noted that Italy was exempt from wine tariffs in the past and could be again, thanks to Meloni’s diplomatic efforts.
In contrast, Trump’s past disdain for France and Germany, which he often criticized during his presidency, could make them more vulnerable to trade penalties. Meloni’s approach, marked by personal diplomacy and flattery, could give Italy an advantage in these delicate trade negotiations.
Another potential complication stems from Italy’s 2020 implementation of a Digital Services Tax (DST), which targets major US tech companies. With figures like Elon Musk at the forefront of US business interests, Italy’s DST could become a sticking point in negotiations, especially if it leads to a trade conflict between the US and Italy.
While Trump’s policies are unpredictable, one thing remains clear: tariffs and trade wars have significant historical consequences. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, is widely blamed for exacerbating the Great Depression. Modern economic experts have cautioned that similar protectionist measures could damage the global economy once again.
As Italian businesses fret about the potential fallout from renewed tariffs, there’s a broader question: How should Italy handle Trump’s trade threats? The answer, it seems, is to follow the lead of Canada and Mexico, which recently staved off US tariffs through diplomatic negotiations and concessions. For Meloni and Italy, the key may be to play up the importance of the US-Italy relationship, offering flattery and concessions where necessary to avoid the full brunt of any punitive measures.
As tensions continue to rise, Italy’s future in the global trade landscape may depend on how well it navigates these turbulent waters. For now, Italian businesses—especially in the wine industry—are holding their breath, hoping that diplomacy will prevent them from becoming collateral damage in a broader trade war.
Related topics:
- Does White Zinfandel Need to Be Chilled?
- 8 Best White Zinfandel Wines
- What’s the Difference Between Zinfandel and White Zinfandel?
