The brewing industry has faced considerable uncertainty in recent years, and 2024 was expected to be a year of recovery. Instead, the sector continues to grapple with a range of challenges, from rising ingredient costs to global economic turbulence. As breweries adapt to these pressures, the key to survival may lie in anticipating change and making proactive adjustments to meet evolving consumer preferences.
Rising Costs and the Impact of Climate Change
The global brewing community is feeling the squeeze as crop yields, particularly of key ingredients like malted barley and hops, are increasingly affected by climate change. Neil Walker, Head of Communications and Marketing at the Society of Independent Brewers (SIBA), explains that harvest yields for these core ingredients fluctuate annually, making the sector vulnerable to unpredictable supply chain disruptions. Smaller, independent brewers, in particular, are at a disadvantage when it comes to securing long-term contracts and negotiating prices, further complicating their ability to stay afloat.
These challenges are compounded by the impact of geopolitical events. As Firestone Walker Brewing Company co-founder David Walker points out, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and sanctions on trade have had far-reaching effects on the cost of raw materials. “The competition for packaged goods during Covid surged, and the war disrupted supplies of wheat, malt, and aluminum,” he says. A poor barley harvest could exacerbate these problems, he warns, leaving brewers with even higher costs.
In the UK, brewers are also preparing for the introduction of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) costs next year, a new regulatory measure that is expected to add significant financial pressure. Adnams Brewery’s Production Director, Fergus Fitzgerald, notes that breweries are facing a growing number of challenges but remains hopeful that the industry will find ways to adapt.
A Positive Path Forward: Innovation and Quality
Despite these dark clouds, there are opportunities for brewers to adapt and thrive. CAMRA Vice-Chair Gillian Hough stresses the importance of making beer more engaging and showcasing its inherent qualities. “To safeguard beer’s future, we need to make the category more interesting and celebrate the positives of beer,” Hough says, emphasizing the need for brewers to focus on high-quality offerings rather than just chasing higher price points for mediocre products.
John Hobday, co-founder of London-based Anspach & Hobday, agrees, highlighting that focusing on truly excellent beer—rather than “premiumizing” subpar options—could spark a revival for the industry. This approach, he argues, will help the sector regain its footing in a highly competitive market.
Consumer Demand for Choice
Trends in the beer industry are increasingly shaped by consumers’ desire for greater choice. The rise of low- and no-alcohol beers, driven by health-conscious consumers, is one example. Fitzgerald predicts that in a few years, it will be unthinkable for a brewery not to offer low- or no-alcohol options. Consumers want to control their alcohol intake, and the beer industry is responding by diversifying its offerings to include gluten-free, low-calorie, and alcohol-free options.
In addition to these health-conscious choices, there is also a growing demand for “escapism” in beer styles, with world lagers continuing to thrive. These beers, often associated with Mediterranean leisure and vacation destinations, offer consumers a sense of escape from their everyday routines.
On the other hand, there has been a resurgence of darker beer styles, such as stouts and porters, which offer comforting, rich flavors that appeal to drinkers seeking warmth and indulgence. Walker notes a shift toward stronger, darker beers during the Covid-19 pandemic, and Hough observes that consumers are drawn to the “decadent, flavorful character” of these brews.
The Future of Beer: Unpredictable Yet Promising
As the beer industry navigates these unpredictable challenges, the future remains uncertain. Mark Tranter, founder and head brewer of Burning Sky, suggests that the evolution of beer will be unpredictable, unfolding in ways brewers cannot yet anticipate. “It will be like one of those games where someone draws the head and then folds the paper for the next person to draw the body,” he says.
Fitzgerald echoes this sentiment, likening the process of predicting the future to driving down a dark road while looking in the rearview mirror. “It’s best to have hopes rather than predictions,” he says, adding that beer’s resilience and ability to stay relevant will ensure its place in the future.
Ultimately, while the challenges facing the brewing industry in 2024 are significant, there is also cause for optimism. With a focus on quality, innovation, and consumer choice, the beer industry has the potential to weather the storm and emerg.
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