Global wine production is forecast to fall to its lowest levels in over 60 years in 2024, with a projected output of 231 million hectolitres (mhl), a 2% decrease from 2023 and 13% below the ten-year average, according to preliminary data from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).
This marks the smallest global wine harvest since 1961, underscoring the widespread impact of extreme weather events, many of which have been intensified by climate change. Early frosts, droughts, and severe storms have ravaged vineyards across key wine-producing regions, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the industry. Economic pressures and shifting market dynamics have also contributed to the downturn.
Europe Faces Sharp Decline in Production
The European Union, which traditionally accounts for around 60% of global wine production, is experiencing a significant contraction. The EU’s total wine output is estimated to be 139 mhl in 2024, down 3% from 2023 and 11% below the five-year average. This marks the lowest production level for the EU in the 21st century.
France, one of the world’s largest wine producers, has been hit hardest, with production expected to fall by 23% to 36.9 mhl. Adverse weather conditions, including persistent rainfall, disease outbreaks, and hailstorms, have particularly affected regions like Bordeaux and the Rhône Valley, resulting in some of the smallest harvests since 2017.
In contrast, Italy has seen a 7% increase in wine production, reclaiming its position as the world’s largest producer with 41 mhl, although still 13% below its five-year average. Spain has also experienced a modest recovery, with a production of 33.6 mhl, up 18% from the previous year.
Eastern European countries such as Hungary and Slovakia have bucked the trend, posting above-average harvests, while Portugal’s production is expected to align with its five-year average.
Southern Hemisphere Struggles with Climatic Challenges
The Southern Hemisphere is also experiencing a decline in production, with total output for 2024 projected to be 46 mhl, down 2% from 2023 and 12% below the five-year average. Argentina, South Africa, and New Zealand have faced a range of climatic challenges, from frosts to heavy rainfall and flooding, which have severely affected their yields.
Argentina, however, has seen a strong recovery, with production reaching 10.9 mhl, a 23% increase from 2023, although still below its five-year average. In contrast, Chile and Brazil have faced sharp declines, with production dropping by 15% and 25%, respectively, due to droughts and excessive rainfall. Australia’s output of 10.2 mhl saw a slight increase but remained well below historical averages.
Industry Faces Growing Climate Challenges
As climate change continues to affect global wine production, industry leaders are emphasizing the need for adaptation and sustainability. Chris Stroud, market manager for Europe at New Zealand Winegrowers, stressed the importance of responding to these challenges to maintain the reputation of wine as a premium, sustainable product. New Zealand, for example, has introduced a Roadmap to Net Zero 2050, aimed at reducing emissions and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the industry.
Victoria Henson, director at Champagne UK, highlighted that research and development into new grape varieties are crucial for maintaining quality while adapting to shifting climatic conditions.
Regional Success Stories Amidst Global Decline
While the global wine harvest is down overall, some regions are faring better than others. Georgia, known for its ancient winemaking traditions, continues to outperform many other countries with strong investments in production and marketing. Hungary, too, has reported its highest harvest since 2010. South Africa, despite facing challenges from floods and disease, is seeing stable stocks and a positive outlook for the 2025 season.
Maryna Calow, communications manager at Wines of South Africa, noted that the country’s wine production has stabilized post-pandemic, with current stock levels meeting demand. She emphasized that the 2025 harvest forecast is positive, although the global downturn in wine consumption could affect market dynamics.
Outlook for the Future
The global wine industry is grappling with increasingly erratic weather patterns, shifting market conditions, and a changing climate, but adaptation efforts are underway. While 2024 promises to be a difficult year for producers worldwide, the focus is now on long-term sustainability and resilience, with research, innovation, and strategic investment offering hope for the future.
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