As 2025 approaches, the high-end wine market is poised for a challenging year, with mixed outlooks stemming from the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. According to Liv-ex, a prominent wine trading platform, this imbalance continues to shape market trends, especially as key indicators such as the bid-to-offer ratio suggest an uncertain future.
The bid-to-offer ratio, a critical metric that tracks the value of bids against offers, serves as a gauge of market sentiment. Historically, a decline in this ratio has been a signal of bearish trends, while an increase tends to signal a reversal toward a bullish outlook. At the start of 2024, the bid-to-offer ratio reached a new low but showed slight recovery by the year’s end, hinting at a potential positive shift. However, it remains below the 0.5 threshold—indicating price stability but also a lack of strong upward movement.
Since December, the bid-to-offer ratios across several of Liv-ex’s primary indices, including the Fine Wine 50, 100, and 1000, as well as the Bordeaux 500, have dropped. Many sub-indices have mirrored this decline, though some, such as the Italy 100 index, have shown resilience. The Italy 100’s ratio climbed to 0.65, the highest in the past year, while the Burgundy 150 index increased slightly but remained low at 0.18. Other indices, including Bordeaux and Sauternes, fell below 0.50.
Masseto, a key wine in the Italy 100 index, exhibited notable strength. Its bid-to-offer ratio surged from 1.05 in August to 1.71 recently, as its wines saw price increases—seven of the top ten Masseto wines experienced price growth. Of the 20 wines in the Italy 100 to see price increases in the past year, six were Masseto wines. Meanwhile, Ornellaia’s ratio improved from 0.45 in November to 0.83 in December, stabilizing at 0.79. Should demand continue, Ornellaia’s prices may stabilize further.
In contrast, the Sauternes 50 index recorded the lowest bid-to-offer ratio, standing at just 0.05. This reflects ongoing preferences for sweeter wines, with even the top-tier Sauternes, Chateau d’Yquem, registering a low ratio of 0.10. The “Rest of the World 60” index, which includes wines from outside traditional wine regions, also reported low ratios, with prominent wines like Vega Sicilia Unico and Opus One at 0.59 and 0.47 respectively. In stark contrast, iconic wines such as Screaming Eagle Oakville Cabernet Sauvignon, Seña, and Dominus suffered from extremely low ratios of 0.04, 0.05, and 0.06, respectively. Penfolds Grange fared slightly better with a ratio of 0.10.
Further, indices representing the top Bordeaux wines—the Top 50 Fine Wines, Top 50 Second Wines, and Top 40 Bordeaux Legends—saw significant declines, all dropping by more than 0.43 over the past year. This signals that even Bordeaux’s finest vintages are not immune to the pressures of supply and demand imbalances. With annual production of Bordeaux wines often exceeding 20,000 cases and producers hesitant to sell below cost, the reduction in offer prices has been insufficient to stimulate robust demand.
As the market faces these challenges, the trajectory for high-end wine prices remains uncertain heading into 2025. The persistence of supply and demand discrepancies, coupled with varying performance across different wine regions and brands, suggests that the market will require careful navigation in the months ahead.
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