Australian grape growers are pinning their hopes on a strong 2025 vintage, despite navigating one of the toughest economic crises the industry has seen in generations. While the quality of fruit remains high, yields in some regions are down due to an early harvest influenced by climate change.
According to Lee McLean, CEO of Australian Grape and Wine, the primary concern among the country’s 6,000 grape growers and 2,100 wineries is their long-term viability. He stated, “The general consensus is that these are by far the toughest economic conditions they’ve faced in their lifetime, and in some cases, their parents’ and grandparents’ lifetimes.” While there is some optimism for the upcoming vintage, there is a prevailing sense of apprehension within the industry.
The lifting of Chinese tariffs nearly a year ago has resulted in positive growth in exports to China, but this has done little to address the ongoing oversupply issue. The industry is now turning to emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia for potential growth but emphasizes the need for increased government support and improved market access.
Some regions, such as Tasmania and Margaret River in Western Australia, are seeing better results, while areas like the Riverland in South Australia and the NSW Riverina are facing more challenges. McLean noted that some growers are harvesting “about as early as they ever have” due to the impact of climate change, with fluctuating weather patterns further complicating the situation.
David Lowe, the owner of Lowe Family Wine Co. in Mudgee, NSW, has adapted to climate change by planting a “Latin Quarter” vineyard in 2017. This strategy is aimed at mirroring the climatic conditions expected by 2040, which are predicted to resemble southern Italy’s climate. “Wine is like the blotting paper of climate change,” Lowe explained. He noted that, despite the challenges of extreme weather conditions, the variation in climate has been beneficial for his wines, allowing for more distinctive flavors.
Other winemakers, such as Jeff Burch of Howard Park Wines in Western Australia, are also experiencing early harvests due to favorable growing conditions. Burch shared that the harvest is about two to three weeks ahead of schedule, though the compacted vintage has placed significant pressure on wineries.
While wine exports saw a 34% increase in value in 2024, driven by the end of Chinese tariffs in March, McLean warned that the oversupply issue persists, and the market in China has changed, with consumers purchasing less wine.
In South Australia, growers are dealing with a record-dry year, frost damage, and heat, leading to an early harvest. Adam Eggins, Chief Winemaker at Taylors Wines in the Clare Valley, noted that despite the favorable ripening conditions, the drought and frost have resulted in reduced yields. He expressed concern for growers, particularly in light of the drought-induced yield reductions.
In the Barossa Valley, Marco Cirillo of Cirillo Estate mentioned that the drought led to the earliest harvest in 50 years. While he believes the quality of the crop is not in question, the yield loss could be significant, with some growers experiencing losses of up to 50%.
McLean emphasized that many winemakers are struggling financially due to the losses incurred during the diplomatic tensions with China. The future of many wineries and growers is at risk, especially for those who have been selling grapes at prices below the cost of production for several years.
Despite these challenges, there is hope that the 2025 vintage will bring much-needed relief to the industry, even as growers continue to battle unpredictable weather patterns and an uncertain market landscape.
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