China’s wine market is experiencing a steady rise, driven by increasing consumer demand, and is expected to continue expanding in the coming decade. The market is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.3% from 2024 to 2035, reaching a projected 2.1 billion liters in volume and a market value of $18.9 billion by the end of the period.
Market Overview
After a five-year decline, China’s wine consumption saw an upward trend in 2024, with total consumption hitting 2.1 billion liters for the first time since 2018. Despite a modest decline from the peak of 2.9 billion liters in 2018, consumption appears to have stabilized in recent years. By 2024, wine market revenues were recorded at $18.3 billion, consistent with the previous year. However, the overall market value remains significantly below the $39.7 billion it reached in 2017.
Wine Production in China
In 2024, wine production in China reached approximately 1.8 billion liters, marking a flat growth compared to 2023. Over the past decade, production has increased at an average annual rate of 1.3%, with a sharp spike in 2014 when production rose by 28%. In terms of value, the wine production sector saw a decline, with total output valued at $14.9 billion in 2024. Production peaked in 2017 at $32.6 billion, but has remained lower since then.
Imports on the Rise
China’s imports of wine saw a significant recovery in 2024, rising to 270 million liters, the first increase since 2017. This marks the end of a six-year decline in wine imports, although overall import volumes remain lower than their 2017 peak of 745 million liters. In value terms, imports surged to $1.5 billion in 2024. Notably, the top three wine-exporting countries to China were Chile (92 million liters), Australia (68 million liters), and France (50 million liters), accounting for 78% of total wine imports.
Australia led the pack in both volume and value growth, with imports from the country growing at a CAGR of 4.8% in volume and 6.7% in value. The average import price per liter in 2024 increased by 21%, reaching $5.6, driven by higher costs for sparkling wines, which commanded $10 per liter. This increase in price follows a steady growth trend seen over the past 11 years.
Wine Exports Decline
China’s wine exports, however, contracted sharply in 2024. Exports fell by 32.1% to 2.2 million liters, continuing a downward trend since their peak of 10 million liters in 2016. In value, exports plummeted to $28 million. The primary destination for Chinese wine exports remained Hong Kong SAR, which accounted for 41% of total exports. Despite a decline in exports, Hong Kong SAR and other key markets such as France and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) continue to play crucial roles.
Conclusion
Despite some fluctuations, China’s wine market demonstrates resilience and growth potential. As both production and imports continue to stabilize, the market’s projected growth indicates a positive long-term outlook for wine in China. By 2035, the market is expected to reach significant milestones in both volume and value, positioning China as a major player in the global wine industry.
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