Despite strong political ties to Italy’s far-right populist figures, including Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, the prospect of former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House raises concerns within Italy’s wine industry. The looming threat of punitive tariffs on European Union products is creating uncertainty for the country’s vital wine export market.
Trump’s re-election could lead to a renewed wave of tariffs, with the former president recently reiterating plans to impose a 25% levy on various goods, including cars and wine. The threat of these tariffs comes amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and the EU, with Trump accusing the bloc of undermining American interests.
According to the Italian Wine Union (UIV), the imposition of 25% tariffs would result in a direct loss of approximately €472 million annually in Italian wine exports to the U.S. This figure is projected to escalate to a €1 billion loss due to an economic slowdown across other global markets influenced by these tariffs. Furthermore, the UIV forecasts a 6% drop in wine exports to Canada by the end of 2025, and a 5% contraction in the European Union (outside of Italy), amounting to a €216 million loss. Italy itself could experience a 5% decline in wine sales, equating to a €350 million shortfall.
The U.S. remains a critical market for Italian wine, purchasing roughly 24% of all Italian wine exports, valued at around €1.9 billion annually. Key wines, including Brunello di Montalcino and Prosecco, rely heavily on U.S. consumers. In anticipation of the tariffs, U.S. importers have already begun stockpiling bottles of Prosecco.
UIV President Lamberto Frescobaldi responded to Trump’s re-election by highlighting the contradiction between the proposed tariffs and Trump’s economic agenda. Frescobaldi noted that sanctions would likely lead to inflation, a key issue that contributed to the Democratic Party’s loss in the recent election. He called on Italian wine producers to collaborate with U.S. importers and distributors to mitigate the impact of higher costs, even though he acknowledged that this approach may create short-term financial challenges.
Frescobaldi emphasized the importance of preserving the market and the special bond between Italian wine producers and U.S. consumers. He also cautioned that the situation could worsen if the tariffs are implemented, potentially leading to a complete exit from the U.S. market, which would result in even steeper losses than currently projected.
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